Comments on: Polysilicon oversupply coming up? http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/ research . analysis . forecasting Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:42:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.0.3 by: Momo Fader http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-4025 Fri, 04 May 2007 18:24:37 +0000 http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-4025 Richard, all that suggests is that Photowatt was not willing to postpone locking up supply. If what you say is all true, than it's quite apparent what their motivations are (ATS wants to spin off Photowatt into the capital markets while the spinning is good). Thanks for sharing. Himanshu, stick with that FSLR short. This company is headed for a fall, and appreciate your commentary. I'm going to try to put up analysis on my blog over the weekend. Richard, all that suggests is that Photowatt was not willing to postpone locking up supply. If what you say is all true, than it’s quite apparent what their motivations are (ATS wants to spin off Photowatt into the capital markets while the spinning is good). Thanks for sharing.

Himanshu, stick with that FSLR short. This company is headed for a fall, and appreciate your commentary. I’m going to try to put up analysis on my blog over the weekend.

]]> by: Richard http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-4004 Thu, 03 May 2007 17:27:55 +0000 http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-4004 another data point... ATS Automation was trying to IPO their solar division (Photowatt) but pulled it in part because they had failed to lock up polysilicon supply. They have since announced a multi-year agreement to purchase refined metallurgical-grade silicon from Dow Corning. The fact that they are willing to sign a long term agreement to buy Met silicon when they admit this will hurt efficiency and margins indicates they are unable to find polysilicon supply over the next few years. another data point…
ATS Automation was trying to IPO their solar division (Photowatt) but pulled it in part because they had failed to lock up polysilicon supply. They have since announced a multi-year agreement to purchase refined metallurgical-grade silicon from Dow Corning. The fact that they are willing to sign a long term agreement to buy Met silicon when they admit this will hurt efficiency and margins indicates they are unable to find polysilicon supply over the next few years.

]]> by: Jon http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-3942 Mon, 30 Apr 2007 15:12:56 +0000 http://energy.financialnirvana.com/2007/04/29/polysilicon-oversupply-coming-up/#comment-3942 The new polysilicon capacity that is coming on line in the next few years may relieve the supply problem temporarily but demand is increasing quickly, not only in solar. Also I have read that some of this new capacity is already used up by long-term contracts. As the Green/Anti Global Warming movement grows, there will be more PV solar financed with carbon credits and tax incentives. But don't forget about other areas of technology that require polysilicon as well. Ever more sophisticated cars will requires more and more semiconductors for hybrid drive systems, traction controls, ABS, lighting, etc. Practically every electrical device no matter how simple includes a chip and more will be used as energy efficiency becomes the new cool feature. Look inside of a fluorescent light bulb - in this example I count 2 power semiconductors, at least 3 diodes and a small bridge rectifier - 6 chips in one bulb. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Elektronstarterp.jpg Soon it will be mandated that these are used everywhere, that means billions will be sold. Heating and lighting controls increasingly use semiconductor power switching instead of relays. Transformers are being replaced by switching power controls. The list goes on and on. If the new polysilicon capacity coming online creates an oversupply, chances are it will be very temporary. WFR's drop in price may signal that the market believes the oversupply possibility, but then why is HOKU still at $5.65? The new polysilicon capacity that is coming on line in the next few years may relieve the supply problem temporarily but demand is increasing quickly, not only in solar. Also I have read that some of this new capacity is already used up by long-term contracts.

As the Green/Anti Global Warming movement grows, there will be more PV solar financed with carbon credits and tax incentives. But don’t forget about other areas of technology that require polysilicon as well. Ever more sophisticated cars will requires more and more semiconductors for hybrid drive systems, traction controls, ABS, lighting, etc. Practically every electrical device no matter how simple includes a chip and more will be used as energy efficiency becomes the new cool feature. Look inside of a fluorescent light bulb - in this example I count 2 power semiconductors, at least 3 diodes and a small bridge rectifier - 6 chips in one bulb.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c4/Elektronstarterp.jpg

Soon it will be mandated that these are used everywhere, that means billions will be sold.

Heating and lighting controls increasingly use semiconductor power switching instead of relays. Transformers are being replaced by switching power controls. The list goes on and on.

If the new polysilicon capacity coming online creates an oversupply, chances are it will be very temporary. WFR’s drop in price may signal that the market believes the oversupply possibility, but then why is HOKU still at $5.65?

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